Fortaleza vs Athletic Club
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-27 · 23:30 CET
DWDDW
WDDLLThe score model made a Fortaleza win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fortaleza 1.40 – 0.72 Athletic Club.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza win | 53.4% | 58.8% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 25.1% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Athletic Club win | 19.3% | 16.1% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 45.6% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 25.1% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.6% | 45.3% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 31.2% | -5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fortaleza 24.4 / Athletic Club 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.