Avai vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-13 · 00:30 CET
LWDWL
LDWWWThe score model makes a Avai win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Avai win — 45.5% vs 34.4% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Avai 1.45 – 1.09 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai win | 45.5% | 34.4% | +11.0% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 29.7% | -3.7% |
| CRB win | 28.6% | 35.9% | -7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 45.8% | +0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 25.7% | -0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 52.0% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 31.5% | +3.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Avai 50.2 / CRB 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.