Avai vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-13 · 00:30 CET
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WWLWLThe score model made an Avai win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Avai 1.39 – 1.09 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avai win | 44.0% | 33.3% | +10.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 30.9% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| CRB win | 29.7% | 35.8% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 43.1% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 23.7% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 50.7% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 30.0% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Avai 51 / CRB 52 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.