Goias vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-12 · 00:30 CET
WDWDL
WDDLLThe score model makes a Goias win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 51.3% vs 43.9% implied (+7.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goias 1.74 – 0.98 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias win | 55.5% | 54.2% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 27.0% | -3.7% |
| Londrina win | 21.3% | 18.8% | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 43.9% | +7.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 24.0% | +5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 46.1% | +5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 30.4% | +6.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goias 45.6 / Londrina 23.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.