Goias vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-12 · 00:30 CET
WLLWW
DLWWLThe score model made a Goias win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goias 1.69 – 0.94 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goias win | 55.3% | 53.1% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 28.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Londrina win | 21.0% | 18.8% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 42.1% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 22.9% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 45.2% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 29.4% | +6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goias 46.4 / Londrina 24 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.