Novorizontino vs Juventude
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 19:00
The score model makes a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 24%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 0.96 – 0.73 Juventude.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 39.8% | 46.8% | -7.0% |
| Draw | 33.5% | 30.1% | +3.4% |
| Juventude win | 26.7% | 23.2% | +3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24.1% | 38.7% | -14.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.2% | 20.3% | -11.1% |
| Both teams to score | 31.9% | 44.5% | -12.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 27.4% | -5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 51.5 / Juventude 22.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.