Novorizontino vs Juventude
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 21:00 CET
WWWDL
DDWLLThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 24%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 0.96 – 0.73 Juventude.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 39.7% | 45.8% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.4% | 31.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Juventude win | 26.9% | 23.1% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24.1% | 37.2% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.2% | 19.1% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 31.9% | 43.6% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 26.2% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 51.3 / Juventude 22.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.