Athletic Club vs Criciuma
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 16:00 CET
LWLWD
LLWLLThe score model made a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletic Club 0.84 – 0.99 Criciuma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 29.7% | 31.2% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 32.2% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Criciuma win | 38.3% | 36.6% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.7% | 35.8% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.3% | 18.0% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.5% | 44.0% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 25.2% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletic Club 36.3 / Criciuma 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.