Athletic Club vs Criciuma
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 14:00
The score model makes an Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 28%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletic Club 0.84 – 0.99 Criciuma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 29.7% | 29.8% | -0.1% |
| Draw | 32.1% | 32.0% | +0.1% |
| Criciuma win | 38.1% | 38.2% | -0.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.7% | 35.3% | -7.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.3% | 17.9% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 35.5% | 43.5% | -8.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 25.0% | -3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletic Club 36.4 / Criciuma 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.