Vila Nova FC vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 21:00 CET
WLWDW
LLWLWThe score model made a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 1.25 – 1.19 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 37.8% | 41.3% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 30.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Sport Recife win | 35.1% | 28.2% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 43.8% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 24.4% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 50.4% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 30.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 51.4 / Sport Recife 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.