Vila Nova FC vs Sport Recife
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 19:00
The score model makes a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 1.25 – 1.19 Sport Recife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 38.0% | 42.1% | -4.1% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 30.0% | -3.0% |
| Sport Recife win | 35.0% | 27.9% | +7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 43.6% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 24.2% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 50.0% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 30.4% | +0.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 51.6 / Sport Recife 33 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.