Ceara vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 23:30
The score model makes a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.90 – 0.74 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 65.0% | 69.0% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 21.0% | 20.4% | +0.6% |
| Ponte Preta win | 14.0% | 10.6% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 51.7% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 30.6% | -3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 43.5% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 35.3% | +2.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 31.6 / Ponte Preta 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.