Ceara vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-09 · 01:30 CET
LWLDW
LLLLLThe score model made a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.90 – 0.71 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 65.8% | 66.0% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 22.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Ponte Preta win | 13.3% | 11.9% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 48.9% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 28.0% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 43.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 33.7% | +3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 32.5 / Ponte Preta 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.