Botafogo SP vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 21:30
The score model makes a Botafogo SP win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo SP 1.26 – 0.92 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP win | 44.5% | 49.3% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 29.7% | -1.2% |
| America MG win | 27.1% | 21.1% | +6.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 38.3% | -1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.6% | 19.9% | -2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 43.6% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 27.0% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo SP 50.6 / America MG 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.