Botafogo SP vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-08 · 23:30 CET
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WLWLLThe score model made a Botafogo SP win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo SP 1.26 – 0.92 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP win | 44.4% | 49.0% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 29.7% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| America MG win | 27.2% | 21.3% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 40.0% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.6% | 21.2% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.8% | 44.8% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 28.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo SP 50.4 / America MG 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.