Coritiba vs Cruzeiro
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-31 · 00:30
The score model makes a Coritiba win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Coritiba 1.22 – 1.17 Cruzeiro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba win | 37.0% | 28.4% | +8.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 29.0% | -0.8% |
| Cruzeiro win | 34.7% | 42.6% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 45.0% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 25.0% | -3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 50.9% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 31.1% | +0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Coritiba 22.3 / Cruzeiro 50.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.