Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-30 · 00:30
The score model makes an Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 0.88 – 1.43 Palmeiras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 23.0% | 24.2% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 27.2% | 28.6% | -1.4% |
| Palmeiras win | 49.8% | 47.2% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 45.3% | -4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 25.5% | -5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 50.3% | -5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 31.6% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 46.2 / Palmeiras 52.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.