Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-30 · 02:30 CET
LWLLW
DLWDDThe score model made a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 0.85 – 1.52 Palmeiras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 20.8% | 24.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.6% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Palmeiras win | 52.9% | 47.2% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 45.3% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 25.5% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 50.3% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 31.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 47 / Palmeiras 53.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.