Mirassol vs Remo
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-30 · 22:30
The score model makes a Mirassol win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mirassol 1.93 – 0.91 Remo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol win | 61.3% | 54.6% | +6.7% |
| Draw | 21.7% | 25.9% | -4.2% |
| Remo win | 17.0% | 19.5% | -2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 48.2% | +5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 27.4% | +4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 49.3% | +1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.7% | 32.9% | +16.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mirassol 35.6 / Remo 16.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.