Internacional vs Flamengo RJ
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-30 · 22:30
The score model makes an Flamengo RJ win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Internacional 1.07 – 1.52 Flamengo RJ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional win | 26.5% | 24.0% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.4% | -1.5% |
| Flamengo RJ win | 47.6% | 48.6% | -1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 49.6% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 29.1% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 53.5% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 33.9% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Internacional 52.2 / Flamengo RJ 51.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.