Internacional vs Cruzeiro
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-07-23 · 04:30 CET
DDDLL
WWWLWThe score model made an Internacional win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Internacional 1.25 – 1.00 Cruzeiro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional win | 42.1% | 42.3% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 28.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Cruzeiro win | 29.8% | 28.9% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 46.4% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.0% | 26.0% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 31.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Internacional 48.2 / Cruzeiro 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.