St. Liege W vs Waregem W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-11-07 · 19:30 CET
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LLWLLThe score model makes a St. Liege W win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 63.3% vs 61.1% implied (+2.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Liege W 1.68 – 1.29 Waregem W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Liege W win | 45.3% | 44.0% | +1.3% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.8% | +1.0% |
| Waregem W win | 27.9% | 30.2% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 56.1% | +0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.7% | 34.9% | -0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 59.4% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 38.9% | -2.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: St. Liege W 30.8 / Waregem W 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St. Liege W vs Waregem W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.