St. Liege W vs Genk W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-10-03 · 19:30 CET
LWLWL
LDLWWThe score model made a St. Liege W win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Liege W 1.68 – 1.22 Genk W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Liege W win | 47.0% | 42.6% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Genk W win | 26.7% | 30.8% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 52.5% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.2% | 32.5% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 55.8% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 35.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Liege W 30.1 / Genk W 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.