Waregem W vs St. Liege W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
WWLLL
DLLWLThe score model makes a St. Liege W win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waregem W 1.04 – 1.42 St. Liege W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem W win | 26.6% | — | — |
| Draw | 28.8% | — | — |
| St. Liege W win | 44.6% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waregem W 29.8 / St. Liege W 29.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.