Genk W vs Gent W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-09-25 · 20:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Genk W win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Genk W 1.97 – 1.07 Gent W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk W win | 57.6% | 53.9% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 23.8% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Gent W win | 19.2% | 22.2% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 56.5% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | 35.3% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 55.9% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 38.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Genk W 29.6 / Gent W 29.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Genk W vs Gent W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.