St. Liege W vs Leuven W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-09-19 · 13:30 CET
LDLLW
DWWWDThe score model made a Leuven W win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:5 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Liege W 0.83 – 1.73 Leuven W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Liege W win | 16.4% | 12.9% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 20.3% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Leuven W win | 57.3% | 66.9% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 56.9% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.5% | 35.8% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 49.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 39.2% | -0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Liege W 28.9 / Leuven W 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.