Club Brugge W vs Genk W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
WLDWW
WWLLDThe score model made a Club Brugge W win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Club Brugge W 2.29 – 1.30 Genk W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge W win | 58.5% | 65.0% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 19.7% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Genk W win | 19.8% | 15.3% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | 62.0% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.2% | 41.3% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | 54.8% | +11.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.6% | 42.0% | +4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Club Brugge W 28.9 / Genk W 28.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.