Club Brugge KV vs Genk
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-20 · 18:30 CET
WWWWW
DDLWWThe score model made a Club Brugge KV win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Club Brugge KV 2.25 – 1.12 Genk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 62.2% | 59.7% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 21.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Genk win | 17.2% | 18.8% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 66.5% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.7% | 46.2% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 63.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 45.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Club Brugge KV 45.3 / Genk 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Club Brugge KV vs Genk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.