Antwerp vs Royale Union SG
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-20 · 13:30 CET
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WWWDWThe score model made a Royale Union SG win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Antwerp 0.85 – 1.53 Royale Union SG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 20.1% | 18.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 22.2% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Royale Union SG win | 52.3% | 59.5% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 60.1% | -17.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 38.9% | -17.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.6% | 57.3% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 39.9% | -11.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Antwerp 45.2 / Royale Union SG 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Antwerp vs Royale Union SG in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.