Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge KSV
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-23 · 18:30 CET
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DDLLLThe score model made a Club Brugge KV win the most likely outcome at 74%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 75%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Club Brugge KV 2.86 – 1.05 Cercle Brugge KSV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 74.0% | 73.9% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.5% | 15.7% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Cercle Brugge KSV win | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.8% | 72.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.8% | 53.7% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 59.2% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.3% | 50.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Club Brugge KV 43.9 / Cercle Brugge KSV 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.