St. Liege vs RAAL La Louviere
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
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LLLDLThe score model made a St. Liege win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Liege 1.37 – 0.85 RAAL La Louviere.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Liege win | 47.8% | 48.8% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 27.5% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| RAAL La Louviere win | 22.2% | 23.7% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 46.1% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.4% | 25.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 50.1% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.9% | 31.9% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Liege 44 / RAAL La Louviere 24.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.