RAAL La Louviere vs Gent
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Gent win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RAAL La Louviere 1.07 – 1.34 Gent.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louviere win | 28.3% | 31.5% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 28.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Gent win | 41.7% | 39.8% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 47.0% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 26.4% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 53.0% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 31.6% | -2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RAAL La Louviere 24.1 / Gent 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.