Leuven vs Club Brugge KV
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-15 · 20:45 CET
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WWWLWThe score model made a Club Brugge KV win the most likely outcome at 62%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leuven 0.99 – 2.08 Club Brugge KV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leuven win | 16.2% | 15.1% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 20.7% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Club Brugge KV win | 61.5% | 64.2% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 64.0% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 43.4% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 58.4% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 43.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leuven 43.6 / Club Brugge KV 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.