Kortrijk vs Antwerp
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-15 · 18:15 CET
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WWDLLThe score model made an Antwerp win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kortrijk 0.89 – 1.46 Antwerp.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk win | 21.8% | 35.9% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.9% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Antwerp win | 49.1% | 35.2% | +13.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 47.1% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 26.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 52.8% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 32.5% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kortrijk 17.1 / Antwerp 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.