Cercle Brugge KSV vs St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-14 · 20:45 CET
DDLLL
DDWLWThe score model made a Cercle Brugge KSV win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cercle Brugge KSV 1.47 – 1.46 St. Truiden.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge KSV win | 36.7% | 39.4% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.0% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| St. Truiden win | 36.4% | 33.6% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 55.2% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 34.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 59.4% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 37.7% | +3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cercle Brugge KSV 40.4 / St. Truiden 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.