Gent vs KV Mechelen
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-09 · 13:30 CET
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LDLDLThe score model made a Gent win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gent 1.61 – 1.10 KV Mechelen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 48.0% | 47.2% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 26.8% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| KV Mechelen win | 24.8% | 25.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 50.5% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 29.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 54.3% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 34.5% | -1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gent 43.2 / KV Mechelen 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.