Anderlecht vs RAAL La Louviere
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-09 · 18:30 CET
WLLWD
LLLDLThe score model made an Anderlecht win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.85 – 0.93 RAAL La Louviere.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 58.0% | 54.6% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.6% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| RAAL La Louviere win | 17.4% | 19.8% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 49.2% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 28.4% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 50.4% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 33.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Anderlecht 43.2 / RAAL La Louviere 23.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.