Westerlo vs Royale Union SG
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-08 · 20:45 CET
LLLDW
WDWWWThe score model made a Royale Union SG win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:5 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Westerlo 0.94 – 1.68 Royale Union SG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 20.0% | 20.3% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 24.6% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Royale Union SG win | 53.6% | 55.1% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 53.4% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 32.3% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 53.7% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 36.3% | +0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Westerlo 43.3 / Royale Union SG 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.