Club Brugge KV vs Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Club Brugge KV win the most likely outcome at 84%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 75%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Club Brugge KV 3.18 – 0.74 Kortrijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 83.9% | 77.0% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 11.2% | 14.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Kortrijk win | 5.0% | 8.6% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.0% | 69.3% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55.0% | 48.8% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 52.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.5% | 47.6% | -0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Club Brugge KV 43.4 / Kortrijk 16.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.