Kapaz vs Sumqayit
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-09-20 · 17:00 CET
WDWDW
DDWWLThe score model made a Sumqayit win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kapaz 1.07 – 1.40 Sumqayit.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapaz win | 29.3% | 37.0% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 29.3% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Sumqayit win | 45.4% | 33.8% | +11.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 45.3% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 25.2% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 51.1% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 31.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kapaz 43.5 / Sumqayit 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kapaz vs Sumqayit in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.