Gabala vs Neftci Baku
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-09-18 · 15:30 CET
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WDDDDThe score model made a Neftci Baku win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gabala 0.89 – 1.73 Neftci Baku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabala win | 19.8% | 15.0% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.6% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Neftci Baku win | 57.7% | 61.4% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 50.1% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 29.8% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 47.7% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 34.8% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gabala 34.9 / Neftci Baku 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gabala vs Neftci Baku in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.