Neftci Baku vs Araz
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-08-23 · 18:45 CET
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WDLLLThe score model made a Neftci Baku win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 5:0 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neftci Baku 1.78 – 0.94 Araz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neftci Baku win | 57.5% | 62.4% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 22.6% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Araz win | 20.0% | 14.9% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 51.3% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 31.2% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 47.4% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 35.5% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Neftci Baku 43.1 / Araz 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.