Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-20 · 17:00 CET
DWDWW
WLWWDThe score model made a Salzburg win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salzburg 1.56 – 1.17 Sturm Graz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salzburg win | 45.2% | 59.2% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 21.0% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Sturm Graz win | 27.4% | 19.8% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 69.0% | -17.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 49.2% | -20.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 65.2% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 47.5% | -9.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salzburg 35.5 / Sturm Graz 35.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Salzburg vs Sturm Graz in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.