Ried vs Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-20 · 14:30 CET
DWWWD
LLLLLThe score model made a Ried win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ried 1.32 – 1.23 Wolfsberger AC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ried win | 37.5% | 47.2% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 26.4% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Wolfsberger AC win | 33.4% | 26.4% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 56.4% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 35.1% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 58.6% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 38.0% | -7.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ried 28.6 / Wolfsberger AC 36.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ried vs Wolfsberger AC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.