Hartberg vs LASK
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-20 · 14:30 CET
DDWLW
LDLWLThe score model made an LASK win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hartberg 1.21 – 1.57 LASK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartberg win | 28.1% | 10.4% | +17.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 17.6% | +9.5% | ✓ |
| LASK win | 44.7% | 72.0% | -27.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 65.4% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 44.2% | -13.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 53.2% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 43.8% | -8.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hartberg 35.5 / LASK 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hartberg vs LASK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.