Hartberg vs Austria Vienna
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model made a Hartberg win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hartberg 1.31 – 1.19 Austria Vienna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartberg win | 38.3% | 32.9% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.7% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Austria Vienna win | 32.3% | 38.4% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 47.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 27.1% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 53.1% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 32.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hartberg 34.1 / Austria Vienna 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.