Austria Vienna vs LASK
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-09 · 19:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made an LASK win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Austria Vienna 1.47 – 1.54 LASK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna win | 35.2% | 24.7% | +10.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.4% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| LASK win | 38.5% | 49.9% | -11.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 54.5% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 33.6% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 56.6% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.0% | 37.3% | +11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Austria Vienna 33.6 / LASK 33.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.