Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-08 · 19:30 CET
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DWWDLThe score model made a Sturm Graz win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hartberg 1.07 – 1.43 Sturm Graz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartberg win | 27.2% | 19.7% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 24.6% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Sturm Graz win | 44.0% | 55.6% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 54.0% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 33.1% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 53.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 36.8% | -11.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hartberg 33.7 / Sturm Graz 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.