Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-02 · 17:00 CET
WDLDL
LLWLLThe score model made a Wolfsberger AC win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wolfsberger AC 1.46 – 1.40 Austria Vienna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC win | 38.0% | 40.6% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 27.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Austria Vienna win | 34.9% | 31.7% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 51.2% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 30.7% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 56.1% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 35.2% | +7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wolfsberger AC 34 / Austria Vienna 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.