Tirol vs Sturm Graz
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-01 · 17:00 CET
DLLWW
DWWDLThe score model made a Sturm Graz win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tirol 1.00 – 1.89 Sturm Graz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tirol win | 18.6% | 25.6% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 25.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Sturm Graz win | 57.3% | 48.6% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 54.4% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 33.3% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 56.8% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 36.9% | -1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tirol 33.3 / Sturm Graz 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.