Salzburg vs Hartberg
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-08-01 · 19:30 CET
WDWWW
LLLWWThe score model made a Salzburg win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salzburg 1.73 – 0.94 Hartberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salzburg win | 54.9% | 71.9% | -17.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 17.6% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Hartberg win | 19.4% | 10.6% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 62.5% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 41.7% | -13.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 51.5% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 42.6% | -8.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salzburg 33.3 / Hartberg 33.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.