Hertha Wels vs Sturm Graz II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-11-07 · 15:30 CET
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DLLLWThe score model makes a Hertha Wels win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 60.5% vs 57.2% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hertha Wels 1.68 – 1.50 Sturm Graz II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha Wels win | 42.2% | 42.7% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.9% | -0.8% |
| Sturm Graz II win | 34.6% | 33.3% | +1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 63.1% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 42.8% | -3.4% |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 64.9% | -1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 42.3% | +1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hertha Wels 26.2 / Sturm Graz II 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hertha Wels vs Sturm Graz II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.