Liefering vs A. Salzburg
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-11-06 · 18:30 CET
LWLDW
LWWLWThe score model makes an A. Salzburg win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 62.9% vs 55.3% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liefering 1.51 – 1.67 A. Salzburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liefering win | 34.9% | 38.4% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.8% | -1.7% |
| A. Salzburg win | 41.9% | 36.8% | +5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 65.7% | -4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | 46.6% | -7.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 68.0% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 44.7% | -7.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Liefering 40.4 / A. Salzburg 25.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Liefering vs A. Salzburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.