Austria Vienna (Am) vs First Vienna
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-11-06 · 18:30 CET
WWDWW
WWWWLThe score model makes a First Vienna win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Austria Vienna (Am) win — 35.5% vs 22.5% implied (+13.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Austria Vienna (Am) 1.26 – 1.32 First Vienna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 35.5% | 22.5% | +13.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 24.2% | +2.0% |
| First Vienna win | 38.4% | 53.3% | -15.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 54.4% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 34.2% | -8.1% |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 55.3% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 37.0% | -4.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Austria Vienna (Am) 27.5 / First Vienna 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.