Amstetten vs Wacker Innsbruck
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-11-06 · 18:30 CET
WDDWL
DWLLLThe score model makes an Amstetten win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.4% vs 64.1% implied (+10.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Amstetten 1.41 – 1.15 Wacker Innsbruck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amstetten win | 43.1% | 45.6% | -2.4% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 24.7% | +1.3% |
| Wacker Innsbruck win | 30.9% | 29.7% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 57.0% | -9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 35.9% | -10.3% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 59.3% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 39.2% | -8.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Amstetten 40.3 / Wacker Innsbruck 10 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Amstetten vs Wacker Innsbruck in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.