Austria Vienna (Am) vs SK Rapid II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-09-20 · 10:30 CET
LWWDW
LLLDLThe score model made an Austria Vienna (Am) win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Austria Vienna (Am) 1.63 – 1.24 SK Rapid II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 46.6% | 41.1% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| SK Rapid II win | 29.1% | 33.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 60.2% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 40.1% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 63.0% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 42.1% | +1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Austria Vienna (Am) 24.9 / SK Rapid II 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Austria Vienna (Am) vs SK Rapid II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.