Kapfenberg vs Amstetten
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-09-18 · 18:30 CET
LLLWD
WWDDWThe score model made an Amstetten win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 3:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kapfenberg 1.45 – 1.71 Amstetten.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapfenberg win | 32.8% | 17.9% | +15.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 20.8% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Amstetten win | 43.9% | 61.3% | -17.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 61.3% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.7% | 40.5% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 57.5% | +5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.2% | 42.0% | -2.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kapfenberg 39 / Amstetten 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kapfenberg vs Amstetten in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.