Hertha Wels vs First Vienna
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-09-18 · 18:30 CET
LLWDL
WWWWWThe score model made a First Vienna win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hertha Wels 1.14 – 1.35 First Vienna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha Wels win | 31.5% | 21.5% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| First Vienna win | 41.7% | 51.8% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 48.1% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 27.5% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 50.3% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 34.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hertha Wels 23.2 / First Vienna 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hertha Wels vs First Vienna in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.